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Predict global freight rate in Q4

What do you predict the global ocean freight rate will be in the fourth quarter of 2022?

The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) is now 59% lower than it was in January of this year when it reached an all-time high of 5,051 points.

The SCFI has lost another 10.4% in the last week to be recorded at 2072.04, some 240.61 points lower than the previous week. Container spot rates have fallen by 10% for the fourth week in a row, raising the prospect of a hard landing in the sector. And no cargo rush appearances in weeks 37-38, just seven days before the October 1 Golden Week national holidays.

According to Xeneta, the capacity of the trade between Asia and the West Coast of the United States is 13% lower than it was in the same period in 2021 – the equivalent of 21 ships of 8,000 teu – the average vessel size on the trade.

Shipping lines have responded by aggressively withdrawing capacity from major trades ahead of China's Golden Week, but rates have continued to fall.

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